After the budget announcement on Sunday, the Sensex fell by 1,546 points. The narrative was ready even before the market opened on Monday. Foreign investors will sell. Sentiment is broken. This is just the beginning. Brace yourself.

By the time Monday morning arrived, most investors were already emotionally positioned for damage.

Then something inconvenient happened.

The market went up.

Not sideways. Not mildly positive. It went up enough to make people uncomfortable with their certainty.

Later that same evening, Donald Trump announced the India US trade deal with tariffs far lower than expected. By the next session, the Sensex jumped more than 2,200 points.

In two days, the market moved over 3,300 points.

Now pause and ask yourself an honest question.

Who could have predicted this sequence of events?

The budget reaction.
The reversal the very next day.
The trade deal announcement.
The magnitude of the rally.

The answer is simple.

No one.

And yet, scroll through your messages, social feeds, and market commentary. You will find plenty of people who suddenly seem to have known all along.

They will explain why the budget fall was an overreaction.
They will explain why the bounce was inevitable.
They will explain why the trade deal was expected.
They will explain why the rally makes perfect sense.

These people have a name.

They are called liars.

Not because they are bad people. But because they are selling certainty where none exists. They are predicting the past and presenting it as foresight.

This is one of the most dangerous traps investors fall into.

We confuse explanation with prediction.
We confuse confidence with competence.
We confuse storytelling with skill.

Markets do not move because of logic alone. They move because of positioning, expectations, surprise, fear, greed, and randomness. By the time a narrative sounds clean and logical, the money has already moved.

Here is the uncomfortable truth.

If someone could genuinely predict 3,300 point moves in two days with consistency, they would not be on television, WhatsApp groups, or social media. They would quietly be one of the richest people in the world.

They are not.

What you are witnessing instead is hindsight masquerading as intelligence.

After every market move, explanations appear. After every surprise, confidence returns. After every rally or fall, there is someone who says, this was obvious.

It never is.

The market’s job is not to make sense. It is to test behavior.

It tests patience.
It tests discipline.
It tests ego.
It tests the need to feel in control.

Most investors are not hurt by wrong information. They are hurt by the belief that someone else knows better.

This belief leads to action at the wrong time.

Selling after a fall because someone sounds convincing.
Buying after a rally because someone sounds confident.
Changing strategy because a narrative feels urgent.

The key investor advantage is not prediction. It is preparation.

If your portfolio is built assuming that you can predict short term moves, you will constantly feel anxious and late.

If your portfolio is built accepting that you cannot predict short term moves, you will stop reacting to noise.

Think about what actually happened over these two days.

Did India’s long term growth story change?
Did corporate earnings structurally collapse and then recover in 48 hours?
Did productivity, demographics, or entrepreneurship swing wildly?

No.

What changed was sentiment and surprise.

And sentiment is the most unreliable input for decision making.

This is why long term investors do not play the prediction game. They play the positioning game.

They ask different questions.

Am I invested according to my goals?
Is my asset allocation aligned with my time horizon?
Can my portfolio survive surprises I cannot foresee?
Can I stay invested when narratives change daily?

If the answer to these questions is yes, then two days, two weeks, or two months of market drama become irrelevant.

The moment you accept that no one can consistently predict markets, something powerful happens.

You stop chasing voices.
You stop reacting to noise.
You stop feeling foolish for not acting.
You start focusing on what you can control.

Your behavior.
Your allocation.
Your discipline.
Your patience.

The irony is this.

The people who shout the loudest about certainty are usually the least accountable for outcomes. When they are wrong, the story changes. When they are right by accident, the confidence grows.

As an investor, your job is not to listen to certainty. It is to thrive with uncertainty.

Because markets will always surprise you.

And anyone who tells you otherwise is not a genius.

They are just predicting the past.